A Curated List: 10 Notable NiemanLab Predictions

As we write this post, NiemanLab has published 150 predictions for journalism in 2026. Reviewing these predictions is one of our favorite end-of-year exercises, filled with quotes and “aha” moments. This year is even more fun to extract insights from these valuable predictions: my colleague Sarah built a NotebookLM based on our selection of 50 predictions. You can access it here. Enjoy 🎁

Here are 10 hand-picked predictions and quotes that resonated with us:

1. News orgs feed the appetite for authenticity (Bill Adair)

Bill draws a parallel between Netflix’s success with documentaries and urges news publishers to learn from the public’s hunger for authenticity. “In an age when lies have swamped our political discourse and AI has filled our feeds with fakery, people are yearning for content that is authentic.” Link

2. News gets reshaped to match the way your brain works (Alyssa Zeisler)

Alyssa explains that our brains need different versions of a 1500-words story: summaries, audio, interactive Q&As. In 2026, more news organisations will focus on this. “For the most part, personalization in the news has meant, ‘Here are more articles like the ones you clicked.’ In 2026, it will mean, “Here’s the version of this information that matches how your brain works.” Link

3. Publishers fight Big Tech with small local language models (Damin Kiesow)

Damon argues that publishers will find success not with LLMs (Large Language Models) but with SLMs (Small Language Models). 

“SLMs are cheaper to build, easier to maintain, and grounded in a narrowly defined domain, making them far less prone to factual improvisation than LLMs. By design, SLMs are only economically viable at a local level, giving large tech platforms little incentive to compete in the space. What they will have is an incentive to provide their users access to this layer of local intelligence — so long as the administrative and financial demands are reasonable.” Link

4. Journalism starts obsessing over something other than trust (Danielle Brown)

Danielle envisions a future where journalism will shift its focus from trust to interaction and community dialogue.

“I hope 2026 is the year we replace our obsession with trust with some other currency that better assesses what we actually want and want to provide audiences: interest, respect, commitment, or engagement that results in a better-informed citizenry.'” Link

5. Long form video is the next big thing for young audiences (Gretel Kahn)

Gretel, a young journalist for the Reuters Institute, challenges the popular belief that young people only want short videos, arguing that long-form video can engage Gen Z and younger audiences more effectively.

“Despite what the ‘kids-these-days’ brigade might tell you, my demographic is not only interested in minute-long TikTok videos. Many of us also watch a 15-minute video on the endurance of Putin’s rule, a 30-minute video on North Korea’s criminal groups, or even a two-hour video on the NFT Bubble.” Link

6. Sarah’s Myth busting quiz for 2026 (Sarah Marshall)

Sarah debunks several “myths” linked to traffic decline, Google Zero, SEO vs GEO, Search vs AI Overviews, Google Discover, and AI Summaries. She also outlines a recipe for success in 2026:

“This is where you will win in 2026 and beyond: In a world of AI facts and information, human personality and connections, and creative formats will shine. And among a feed of faces on social platforms, social videos featuring your own editors will reach new audiences. First-person viewpoints and expertise will help you win in search. Reader-writer relationships will grow your newsletter audience. Distinctive storytelling will bring people to the homepage.” Link

7.Auotmation arrives (Javaun Moradi)

Javuns’s view is that automation will come to the newsrooms either way, so we better get prepared for it.

“Until now, most news staff have only used AI in isolated tasks, like searching through documents, summarizing, generating ideas, or proofreading. That’s going to change in 2026, as newsroom reporters and developers collaborate on end-to-end automation with human review. It will be easiest to experiment using flexible tools and custom code. Whether you pursue automations in engineering or storytelling, you will be uncomfortable and face difficult decisions. Write your principles down before you begin so that you can keep yourself honest.” Link

8. APIs for news (Jeff Jarvis)

Jeff’s prediction brings some likely unpopular opinions. He suggests that the civic duty of journalism is to provide access to information. If LLMs are the way to distribute that content to audiences, then the civic duty is still to use that as a channel.

“I predict that most in media will wake up one day in 2026 and realize that they have little choice but to be in AI, because that’s where the people formerly known as their audiences are and because all their competitors are there. I propose that news organizations create APIs (application programming interfaces) for news. That is, create the keys that would make their news accessible for AI so they can have open discussions with the technology companies about the responsible use of their content, branding, links, and, yes, possibly payment.” Link

9. The year we will stop freaking out about AI (Lauren Gustus)

Lauren sees 2026 as the year where the AI craze will allow news organisations to focus back on their jobs. “Next year, I’m not going to worry about the doom people think AI will rain down on journalism. I am going to focus relentlessly on the jobs people want and need us to do for them.” Link

10. More than 10 predictors talk about archives (Derek Willis)

Derek predicts that local news organizations will (re-)discover the financial value of their own archives and begin selling access to tech companies. He emphasizes that these local news archives represent “irreplaceable civic infrastructure” that improves tech companies’ offerings, and newsrooms should treat archives as a first-class product rather than a byproduct. Link.